The sub-seasonal forecasts (right) are updated biweekly to give the user the latest forecast information. The schematic below illustrates how the EFAS seasonal and sub-seasonal outlooks are produced. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): exploitation of seasonal forecasting systems as natural integrator of Copernicus Services, enhancement of predictive skills at seasonal timescales, consistent climate re-analysis of the Earth system, improvement in predicting variations of the climate system over the next few years and decades, linkages between current extreme weather events such as droughts, … The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service provides Full, Free and Open Access to Data & Information related to the Global Ocean and the European Seas. As the seasonal forecast is updated each month, with a progressively shorter lead time to the end of the season, we would expect progressively more accurate forecasts of the water year. It provides regular and systematic reference information (observations and models) on the physical state and marine ecosystems: temperature, currents, salinity, sea level, sea ice, marine optics, nutrients, etc. PICO spot 5b. this website is accessible for visitors with dyslexia & reading difficulties. Providing products and services for all marine applications. The API will also be … CAMS: Orals. The skillfulness of seasonal forecast relies greatly on the performance of seasonal models, which differ from one place to another and for different seasons of the year. Minimum notification periods required by ECMWF for testing purposes. GloFAS produces daily flood forecasts (since 2011) and monthly seasonal streamflow outlooks (since November 2017). The seasonal outlook is produced by forcing the Lisflood river routing model with surface and sub-surface runoff from SEAS5, the latest version of ECMWF’s seasonal forecasting system, which consists of 51 ensemble members at ~35km horizontal resolution. Post-processed data You will find two CDS catalogue entries for real-time forecast monthly anomalies; each contains the anomalies for the ensemble mean for each system and the individual ensemble members. The seasonal forecasts (left) are updated weekly with the latest LISFLOOD discharge simulation to help the forecaster with real-time validation. Seasonal forecasts and the Copernicus Climate Change Service Seasonal forecasts and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Introduction to seasonal forecasting The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a GloFAS-Seasonal forecast products are typically produced by the 5th of the month at 05:00 UTC and made available via the web interface on the 10th of the month at 01:00 UTC. The application -which is not yet based on the CDS infrastructure-is a temporary solution in the global SIS demonstrator contract, run by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) from September 2017 to February 2019, used while equivalent functionalities in the CDS toolbox is being developed. Improvement of the representation of the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea level changes, which is important for extended-range and seasonal-range weather forecasts. Time series information: weekly averages of ensemble discharge forecast as box plots. 16th December 2020 On 16th December the Copernicus Climate and Atmosphere Data Stores and associated development environments will be undergoing maintenance and are expected to be unavailable for around 4 hours from 17.00 UTC. There are two outlook products produced for all regions at the start of each forecast, viewable under the ”Seasonal outlook” and "Sub-seasonal outlook" layers. Posters The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service provides Full, Free and Open Access to Data & Information related to the Global Ocean and the European Seas. The overview maps indicates the development of the water in the coming weeks. When numerical probability values are assigned to the forecast, it is a way of indicating the amount of uncertainty in the forecast. Seasonal forecasts provide a long-range outlook of changes in the Earth system over periods of a few weeks or months, as a result of predictable changes in some of the slow-varying components of the system. temperature, salinity, sea level, currents, wind and sea ice) also play a crucial role in the domain of weather, climate and seasonal forecasting. GloFAS Model Details For hydrologists! The release date has been brought forward from 12 UTC on the 8th day of each month to 12 UTC on the 5th day of each month. The EFAS long-range forecasts comprise two model systems; seasonal (SEAS) and sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) outlooks. Important changes have been made to how seasonal forecasts are run operationally, so as to enhance the service given to users. Hall X5. Sci., 22, 3409–3420, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3409-2018, 2018. S5 anomalies of temperature and rainfall are estimated from the mean deviation of the seasonal forecast … Li et al., 2016) and to long-range forecasts up to 12 months ahead (Bennett et al., 2016). Many of the data delivered by the service (e.g. Input importances for seasonal forecast created on April 1st forecasting April through June at a snow-driven basin - Before the forecast … In the United States, for example, researchers have estimated that the 1997-1998 El Niño pattern inflicted costs of approximately $4 billion, but was offset by $19 billion in benefits. Climate Change Using ECMWF’sForecasts (UEF2019) Reading, UK, 3 - 6 June 2019 C o n t e n t s • Copernicus –Copernicus Programme and ECMWF Earth Syst. SEAS5 data are publicly available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service's multi-system seasonal forecast. The maps are produced by the JRC's EFFIS Team based on data from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Monthly Forecast System (MFS). 11 April: 16:25-16:27: C3S: PICO: Global seasonal hydrological forecasts – a Copernicus Climate Change Service experience. Copernicus is an EU programme aimed at developing European information services based on satellite Earth Observation and in situ (non space) data. sonal climate forecast skill, seasonal hydrologic forecast skill comes in substantial part from IHCs (Wood et al., 2002, 2005; Lavers et al., 2009, Lettenmaier and Wood, 2009). Speakers include Carlo Buontempo (C3S) 12 April: 09:30-10:15. ECMWF is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. GloFAS has been fully operational as a Copernicus Emergency Management Service since April 2018. The El Niño acts to redistribute heat and precipitation over the globe. The Copernicus model combines data from scientists in the U.K., France, Germany, Italy and the U.S. Earth Syst. El Niño is the main source of predictability for year-to-year climate variations and is closely studied by ECMWF and its seasonal forecast experts. Hydrol. The re-forecast period has been increased to cover 1981–2016, a 36-year period, compared to 1981–2010 for S4. The CMEMS Sea Level Anomaly satellite data currently used by ECMWF include observations from several sensors, with observations from Jason-2, Jason-3, CryoSat-2 and SARAL/AltiKa operationally assimilated at ECMWF. Overview map: regional discharge anomaly over the forecast horizon, highlighting regions with highest or earliest probability of a high (>90th percentile) or low (<10th percentile) discharge anomaly. Copernicus Climate Change Service: ECVs for Surface and Earth Radiation Budget. UV index forecasts Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the radiation from the Sun that can be damaging to life on Earth. https://marine.copernicus.eu/userfeedback/itw-magdalena-alonso-balmaseda-ecmwf-uk/?idpage=134http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2017/17181-newsletter-no-151-spring-2017.pdf, Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee, Copernicus Marine in support to public policies, Copernicus Marine and marine plastic pollution, Dive into Ocean with the new viewer MyOcean, https://marine.copernicus.eu/userfeedback/itw-magdalena-alonso-balmaseda-ecmwf-uk/?idpage=134, http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2017/17181-newsletter-no-151-spring-2017.pdf. The ocean data assimilation system is a crucial component of ECMWF Earth system approach. Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F., 2018: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? It produces both real-time and reanalysed ocean states and it relies on the assimilation of conventional and satellite observations. The re-forecast ensemble size has also been inc… Guidance from the leading seasonal dynamical models, including those provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, typically provides a significant component … Implemented by Mercator Ocean International as part of the Copernicus Programme. The C3S seasonal forecast products are based on data from several state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems. Copernicus Meetings has the right to hold my presentation materials online for viewing and download by individuals. The CAMS daily forecasts show how CO is distributed around the globe and how plumes from, for instance, wildfires are transported across continents by the prevailing winds. GloFAS Seasonal modelling chain is based on a coupled land-surface and hydrological model forced by an ensemble of meteorological forcings. 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